Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 8th, 2023

Jen Fuentes • 8 March 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

March 8, 2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global economic developments have evolved broadly in line with the outlook in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global growth continues to slow, and inflation, while still too high, is coming down due primarily to lower energy prices. In the United States and Europe, near-term outlooks for growth and inflation are both somewhat higher than expected in January. In particular, labour markets remain tight, and elevated core inflation is persisting. Growth in China is rebounding in the first quarter. Commodity prices have evolved roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations, but the strength of China’s recovery and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine remain key sources of upside risk. Financial conditions have tightened since January, and the US dollar has strengthened.

In Canada, economic growth came in flat in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.

The labour market remains very tight. Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated. Wages continue to grow at 4% to 5%, while productivity has declined in recent quarters.

Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians. With weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters, pressures in product and labour markets are expected to ease. This should moderate wage growth and also increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers.

Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target.

At its January decision, the Governing Council indicated that it expected to hold the policy interest rate at its current level, conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with the MPR outlook. Based on its assessment of recent data, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%. Quantitative tightening is complementing this restrictive stance. Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases, and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information Note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 12, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.

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Jen Fluentes

Mortgage Broker &
Franchise Owner

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

by Jen Fuentes • 30 July 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario July 30, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs. While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar. The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027. In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January. In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year. CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%. In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices. With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025. Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report

Cashback Mortgage Financing

by Jen Fuentes • 23 July 2025

As the name implies, a cashback mortgage is similar to a standard mortgage, except that you receive a lump sum of cash upon closing. This lump sum will either be a fixed amount of money or a percentage of the mortgage amount, usually between 1-7%, depending on the mortgage term selected. How you use the cash is entirely up to you. Some of the most common reasons to secure a cashback mortgage are to: Cover closing costs. Buy new furniture. Renovate your property. Supplement cashflow. Consolidate higher-interest debt. Really, you can use the cash for anything you like. It’s tax-free and paid to you directly once the mortgage closes. Understanding the cost of a cashback mortgage. Now, while it might appear like a cashback mortgage is a great way to get some free money, it’s not. Banks aren’t altruistic; they’re in the business of making money by lending money. Securing a mortgage that provides you with cash back at closing will cost you a higher interest rate over your mortgage term. A cashback mortgage is like getting a fixed loan rolled into your mortgage. Your interest rate is increased to cover the additional funds being lent. Now, with so many different cashback options available and with interest rates constantly changing, it's nearly impossible to run through specific calculations on a simple article to outline how much more you’d pay over the term. So, if you'd like to identify the true cost of securing a cashback mortgage, the best place to start is to discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional. When you work with an independent mortgage professional instead of a single bank, you receive unbiased advice, more financing options, and a clear picture of the cost associated with securing a mortgage. Getting cashback at closing is a mortgage feature that makes the bank more money at your expense. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; the key is to be informed of the costs involved so you can make a good decision. Eligibility for a cashback mortgage. Simply put, a cashback mortgage isn’t for everyone. This is a mortgage product that has tougher qualifications than standard mortgage financing. Any lender willing to offer a cashback mortgage will want to see that you have stable employment, a fabulous credit score, and healthy debt service ratios. If your mortgage application is in any way “unique,” the chances of qualifying for a cashback mortgage are pretty slim. Breaking your mortgage term early. In addition to paying a higher interest rate to cover the cost of receiving the cashback at closing, a cashback mortgage also limits your options down the line. If your life circumstances change and you need to break your mortgage mid-term, depending on the conditions set out in your mortgage contract, you’ll most likely be required to either pay all of the cashback received or at least a portion, depending on how long you’ve had the mortgage. As all cashback mortgages are tied to fixed-rate terms, so in addition to repaying the cashback, you’d also be required to pay the interest rate differential penalty; or 3 months interest, whichever is greater for breaking your mortgage term early. Sufficed to say, should you need to pay out your mortgage early, breaking your cashback mortgage will be costly. Certainly, this is something to consider when assessing the suitability of this mortgage product. Get independent mortgage advice. Understanding the intricacies of mortgage financing can be difficult at the best of times. With all the different terms, rates, and mortgage products available, it’s hard to know which mortgage is best for you. So while a mortgage that offers a cash incentive upon closing might initially seem like an attractive offer, make sure you seek out the guidance of an independent mortgage professional to help you navigate the costs associated with a cashback mortgage. While it might be a great option for you, there might be other mortgage options that better suit your needs. It's worth a conversation for sure! If you’d like to discuss what a cashback mortgage or any other mortgage product would look like for you, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you.